Music Forecast: 41 Percent Will Be Online by 2013

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Forester Research has just released a report asserting that digital sales currently make up 18 percent of the American music market… and that they’ll make up 41 percent of it within five years.

The two most surprising things

There are two incredibly surprising things about this report. The first is that digital music will make up nearly half of the total market in five short years. The second is that it makes up only 18 percent now.
Really?

I’m sure anyone who gets most of their music online will be shocked to find the number so currently small; meanwhile, anyone who’s still into the aging CD will be shocked to find the number so eventually large.

I’m in the former group, myself. I’m ashamed to admit that my vision is so skewed that I really thought everybody was buying online like I am.

U.S. Music Forecast, 2008 to 2013

Jupiter’s report was called “U.S. Music Forecast, 2008 to 2013.” It also announced that 55 percent of Americans who shop online will be paying to download music by 2013.

This boon for the internet company should not cheer the hearts of the entire music business, however. The report also estimated that the overall market will shrink within the same amount of time from its current $10.2 billion to $9.2 billion.

You might roll your eyes (who can make predictions in the face of the economic storms immediately before us?) but you have to admit that it’s going to happen. The market will shrink.

How much, though? I defy anyone to guess accurately.

Investigating market crossover

The report also saw fit to investigate market crossover between CD and digital sales. They found in a survey that 64 percent of digital music service subscribers and 57 percent of music down loaders have also bought a CD in a store within the past year.

Although piracy still accounts for the dominant number of music downloads, the researchers also said that legitimate online sales are becoming more and more popular.

Companies like Amazon.com helping

They mentioned that companies like Amazon.com are helping this number by providing DRM-free music that can be used on multiple devices.

They found that digital music consumers getting an average of 60 percent of their purchased music online.

They also took a peek at the small, emerging market for cell phone music listening. They found that even if it becomes a fad in the US, it will be a small market even in five years: less than $300 million. (OK; comparatively small.)